Mortgage loan Credit Collectibility as an Early Warning System in Credit Risk Mitigation (Study at Bank Mandiri in 2026)

Denis Anisa; Listri Herlina; Astrin Kusumawardani

doi:10.47747/ijbme.v7i2.3514

Authors

Denis Anisa Universitas Indonesia Membangun
Listri Herlina Universitas Indonesia Membangun, Bandung
Astrin Kusumawardani Universitas Indonesia Membangun, Bandung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47747/ijbme.v7i2.3514

Keywords:

Credit Risk, Collectibility, Early Warning System, NPL, Mortgage Loan

Abstract

This study aims to measure credit risk in Home Ownership Loan (MORTGAGE LOAN) financing at Bank Mandiri using collectibility indicators as an Early Warning System (EWS) against potential Non-Performing Loans (NPL). Using a descriptive quantitative approach, the study analyzed secondary data comprising 306 accounts in Collectibility 2A (Special Mention) as of May 13, 2026, with a total outstanding balance of Rp 142.44 billion. Results show that 53% of debtors currently in Kol 2A were previously in current status (Kol 1), indicating a new wave of credit quality deterioration undetectable by NPL ratios alone. A total of 30 accounts (9.8%) are in the critical segment with arrears exceeding Rp 10 million. These findings confirm that mid-tier collectibility movements can serve as effective early warning signals, enabling banks to adopt preventive rather than reactive risk management approaches.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Bank Indonesia. (2024). Residential Property Price Survey (SHPR) 2024-2025. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia.

Beltman, J., Machado, M. R., & Osterrieder, J. R. (2025). Predicting retail customers' distress in the finance industry: An early warning system approach. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 82, 104101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2024.104101

Dendawijaya, L. (2009). Manajemen Perbankan [Banking Management]. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.

Fejes, J., & Katits, E. (2025). Early warning indicators in banking credit risk. Journal of Financial Risk Management.

Herlina, L., & Suryaningprang, A. (2023). Measuring the Capital Adequacy Ratio for Bank Business Activity Group 3 that listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Jurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan (JIKA), 12(2), 181-190. https://doi.org/10.34010/jika.v12i2.9442

Khomaria, N., & Syah, T. Y. R. (2024). Analysis of factors affecting mortgage loan credit risk. Journal of Management and Business.

Mawardi, I., Al Mustofa, M. U., Widiastuti, T., & Wahid, W. W. (2023). Early warning systems in Indonesian Islamic banks: A comparison of Islamic commercial and rural banks. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2172803. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2172803

Mishkin, F. S. (2016). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (11th ed.). New York: Pearson.

Nurpita, A., & Oktavia, R. (2021). Contribution of mortgage loan financing to property sector growth. Journal of Economics and Finance.

Financial Services Authority (OJK). (2016). OJK Regulation on Commercial Bank Asset Quality. Jakarta: OJK.

Financial Services Authority (OJK). (2025). Indonesian Banking Surveillance Report Q1 2025. Jakarta: OJK.

Prayoga, D., Herlinawati, E., & Herlina, L. (2026). Predicting Financial Distress through Financial Ratios. BALANCE: Economic, Business, Management, and Accounting Journal, 23(1), 131-146. https://doi.org/10.30651/blc.v23i1.29206

Prihatina, R. (2022). Credit collectibility analysis as an early warning system. Journal of Banking and Finance.

Rahmi, P. P., & Herlina, L. (2021). The Effect of CAR, NPL, BOPO, NIM, and LDR on ROA at PT Bank Tabungan Negara, Tbk. Jurnal Ekonomi, 12(1), 93-103. https://doi.org/10.47007/jeko.v12i01.4080

Sari, D., Siregar, B., & Harahap, R. (2020). Credit risk in long-term financing. Journal of Management Science.

Silitonga, R., & Manda, G. S. (2022). Effect of NPL on bank financial performance. Journal of Accounting and Finance.