The Pricing of Energy Transition Risk in ASEAN Energy Markets: The Moderating Roles of Carbon Intensity and Environmental Innovation

Rainer Sebastian Manurung; Fitriya Fitriya

doi:10.47747/ijbme.v7i4.3718

Authors

Rainer Sebastian Manurung Finance Program, School of Accounting, Universitas Bina Nusantara Indonesia
Fitriya Finance Program, School of Accounting, Universitas Bina Nusantara Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47747/ijbme.v7i4.3718

Keywords:

Energy Transition Risk, Stock Valuation, Carbon Intensity, Environmental Innovation, ASEAN.

Abstract

This study examines whether energy transition risk, proxied through an inverted Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Score referred to as Emission and Transition Risk (ETR), affects the market valuation of energy sector firms in the ASEAN region. The study further tests carbon intensity as a variable that amplifies the effect of transition risk, and environmental innovation as a variable hypothesized to weaken that effect. The sample consists of 13 listed energy sector companies from Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia from 2015 to 2024, forming a balanced panel of 130 firm-year observations. We analyzed the data using a panel-data fixed-effects model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to address heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, and cross-sectional dependence. The results show that energy transition risk significantly and negatively affects firm value, as measured by Tobin's Q, consistent with the market-repricing view of climate risk. Carbon intensity strengthens this negative effect, indicating that the market penalizes firms with a higher carbon footprint more heavily. In contrast, environmental innovation does not significantly weaken the negative effect of transition risk on firm value. These findings offer implications for investors, regulators, and energy company management in formulating low-carbon transition strategies across the ASEAN region

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