The Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Stock Market Volatilities in India: ARCH-GARCH Estimation of the Causal Effects`

Lakshmanasamy T.

doi:10.47747/ijfr.v2i4.443

Authors

Lakshmanasamy T. University of Madras

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47747/ijfr.v2i4.443

Keywords:

Exchange Rate, Stock Market Return, Volatility, ARCH, GARCH Estimation

Abstract

With increasing globalisation and integration of national stock exchanges, for the global investor, the portfolio risk increases not only from the local stock market volatility but also in the exchange rate risk. This paper examines the exchange rate volatility effect on volatility in stock market return from India’s perspective for the period January 2010 to December 2015, applying ARCH and GARCH estimation. The daily data of the BSE SENSEX returns, exchange rates of US dollar/rupee, British pound/rupee, Euros/rupee are used. It is estimated that the Euro/rupee exchange rate volatility has a significant positive effect on the BSE SENSEX return volatility, while the effect of the US dollar/rupee and British pound/rupee exchange rate the volatilities are insignificantly negative. The larger GARCH parameter over the ARCH term indicates that the own lagged values of the stock return cause more volatility in stock returns than the innovations. There exists a highly persistent effect of shocks to the BSE SENSEX return and the volatility effect wanes only slowly

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